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November 4, 2008

Israel Office

• NIF Providing Emergency Assistance as Economic Crisis Impacts Israel
• Record Number of Women Running for Mayor

SHATIL

• SHATIL Promotes Community Involvement in Local Elections: A Roundup
• No! to the Closing of a Russian Cultural Treasure

NIF Outside Israel

• Tzipi Livni's Way Forward: Yoram Peri speaks to NIF Canada

Weekly Message

Having observed elections around the world for much of the past 25 years, I am often cynical when talking about US elections.  Our campaigns are too long, the issues not well-debated and the people too disinterested.   Today, however, I am feeling quite proud about our most recent democratic exercise.   This year, Americans participated in the electoral process and voted in record numbers.  Equally important, we collectively drove another nail in the coffin of our tragic legacy of slavery and discrimination.

For the past year, despite my personal affinity for the Obama campaign, I have refrained from using this column for partisan arguments.  Yet, now I am comfortable in predicting that we are witnessing the emergence of a transformational leader with just the right temperament and intellect to lead us in these difficult times.   I urge those who have not yet read the lyrical autobiography Dreams From My Father and the well-written albeit policy-wonkish The Audacity of Hope to take the time to better understand the personal history and professional experiences that drive President-elect Obama.

We who work in the social change arena should take immense pride in the fact that a “community organizer” has been elected president of the United States.  We should learn from the Obama campaign about the importance of setting a long-term strategy and not letting short-term setbacks undermine the effort, about using new technologies creatively both to mobilize supporters and to raise money, about not taking anything for granted, and about remaining calm and gracious even when being attacked.  And, we should appreciate that the new President – having lived four years in Indonesia, having an extended Kenyan family and having a mother who worked in the field on international development issues – will bring a very different international sensibility to the Oval Office than any of his predecessors.

The new president has a long list of domestic priorities that will draw his initial attention and he will also confront several immediate international challenges.   However, for those of us who focus on the Middle East, we will watch with considerable interest as President Obama decides on a policy toward Iran and on an appropriate US role in helping resolve the Israeli-Palestinian and Israeli-Syrian conflicts.

Already, senior Israeli policymakers are expressing concern that a President Obama will not act with sufficient clarity and forcefulness regarding the Iranian nuclear threat.   However, it is not as if they are convinced that the current Administration’s policies are working.  After years of international sanctions and tough rhetoric, the Iranians are further along in their quest for a nuclear option than ever before.  While there are clearly no easy answers to this vexing issue, we should welcome fresh thinking from a new team that undoubtedly will take into account legitimate Israeli concerns.

In terms of negotiations between Israel and its neighbors, I doubt the Obama team will revert to the benign neglect of Bush’s first term; indeed, even Bush’s advisers ultimately recognized the importance of an active US role and Secretary Rice’s efforts during the past 18 months should provide several critical building blocks.  Still, there are two competing camps among Obama’s Middle East advisers.   One group advocates revising the Clinton Administration approach, which combined pro-active engagement and advance coordination with Israeli policymakers regarding sensitive issues.   A second group argues that the US must play a more dynamic role in facilitating a settlement among the parties, even if this means placing on the table specific positions regarding final status issues and taking to task publicly those who are complying with previous commitments.

The Obama Middle East policy will take some time to emerge.   He does not assume office for another 75 days and his Middle East team will not be fully on board until some time thereafter.   More important, as we have learned from previous experiences, events in the Middle East often require US policymakers to take advantage of specific opportunities (such as Sadat’s visit to Israel in 1977 and the Oslo negotiations in 1993) or to respond to unwelcome developments (the 2006 Hamas election victory and the second Lebanon war being the most recent examples).   Thus, the best laid plans of those who have been preparing “transition” papers for a new administration may come up against the reality of having to respond to facts on the ground.